Colombia Libre
Colombia and Brazil next?
January 8, 2026
Colombia’s presidential election is in May. The incumbent is term limited and not running. The leftist candidate is Iván Cepeda Castro with a one out of three chance he gets elected according to prediction markets. They give conservative Abelardo de la Espriella a 40% chance of winning; I’d take the over. There will be many winners if he pulls it off with Ecopetrol (EC) at the top of that list.
June 1, 2026
With Espriella advancing to the next round, the odds on my bet that he’ll win doubled to 80%; I’m still long.
EC remains at the top of the list of winners, up ~43% since January 8th with more to come as Colombia casts off socialist tyranny and joins Argentina and Chile in a growing movement of free South American nations. Other beneficiaries include Global X MSCI Colombia ETF (COLO), Bancolombia (CIB), and Tecnoglass (TGLS).