Colombia Libre
Colombia and Brazil next?
January 8, 2026
Colombia’s presidential election is in May. The incumbent is term limited and not running. The leftist candidate is Iván Cepeda Castro with a one out of three chance he gets elected according to prediction markets. They give conservative Abelardo de la Espriella a 40% chance of winning; I’d take the over. There will be many winners if he pulls it off with Ecopetrol (EC) at the top of that list.
June 22, 2026
Shot / chaser
Various shades of communist and socialist candidates have gone down to electoral defeat in South America over the past few years. Shot: Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? Abelardo de la Espriella. Chaser: Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? Colombia. The logic is that Espriella’s predecessor was virulently anti-Israeli (to use the more charitable description) and Espriella isn’t. He will probably restore diplomatic relations shortly. You can place that bet here. I think it has positive expected value. Setting up a new account, getting a sign up bonus of up to $500 and betting that sign up bonus definitely has +EV!