Underpay for SpaceX
A better way to pay.
Disclaimer / Disclosure long SATS
September 10, 2025
Don’t overpay for SpaceX. Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) is perhaps the worst way to get exposure. It is far better to simply buy SpaceX on Hiive.
Even better: buy EchoStar (SATS). For ~$80 you get ~$75 of cash net of debt and taxes after announced spectrum sales as well as ~$25 per share of SpaceX. It will take a while to navigate the regulatory approvals to clear the spectrum sales, but once they’re done, this will essentially be a publicly traded SpaceX, currently for 20% of its non-cash net asset value.
January 21, 2026
SpaceX Already IPOed
It is available today.
Disclaimer / Disclosure long SpaceX and SATS
Pre-public SpaceX shares trade on the secondary market. They are up ~569% since they started trading in 2022, ~178% over the past year, ~89% since I disclosed this idea last September, and ~65% over the past 3 months.
SpaceX is about to interview banks for their IPO. There will probably be multiple in some combination of Goldman (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), and Citigroup (C). Elon Musk is in a hurry. He wants to IPO by the end of Q2.
When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? You can place a bet on the prediction markets. Things tend to take longer than Elon wants or expects. If he’s shooting for something in Q2, it could slide, but I would/did bet that he can do it by year end. It costs $0.80 to get $1 if SpaceX officially announces their IPO before January 1, 2027. Double check the price on the separately listed question Which Companies will officially announce an IPO before 2027? which currently costs $0.83 for SpaceX. If you haven’t placed a bet on Kalshi before, they’ll pay you $25 the first time you do so with as little as a $10 wager.
But as mentioned last September, SpaceX is already public, albeit indirectly, via EchoStar (SATS).
